Trade Room Now Open For New Members

Trade Room Now Open For New Members

I’ve have received several requests from interested traders on how they can join the Logical Signals Trade Room.  I have some GREAT NEWS!

The room is now open for up to an additional 100 traders.

I have some exciting new things to share.

New MJF1 AutoTrader: I have worked diligently over the past 6 months with a superior software engineer in developing an auto trader. We have tested it extensively to ensure there aren’t any “bugs”, and it is now available for purchase for members of the room. I have developed the proper working settings for each of the markets currently traded:

Crude Oil (CL), DJIA (YM), S&P 500 (ES), NASDAQ 100 (NQ), EuroDollar (6E), Gold (GC) and the 30 – year bond (ZB).

Members purchasing the MJF1 Auto Trader receive extensive training in its use.

As always, I am purposely limiting the number of members in order to be able to provide a high level of coaching and mentoring during the trading session.

THE LIVE TRADE ROOM INCLUDES:

Live Trade Analysis: We share our full analysis for every trade we take, including when we plan to enter and why, where our stop will be, and where our profit targets will be.

Instruction: We offer ongoing instruction in the use of the MJF1 Auto trader (for those who purchase it). We teach you how to identify when the market is trending or ranging and how to spot the best times to take a trade. We wait patiently and let our trade set ups come to us. It is as important, or possibly more important, to know when NOT to take a trade as it is when to take a trade.

Live Discussion: Including several factors of trading such as psychology, risk management, position sizing and much more.

We all know the combined knowledge of a group of experts is infinitely more powerful than going it alone. And the bottom line is a whole lot fatter when you can leverage the knowledge of a group.

mastermind

Sometimes these groups are just five people. Sometimes more than 100. They can last for years or just a few months.  And they’ve kept me sane. It’s easy to go nuts when you spend too much time on your own.

Now You Can Join the Logical Signals Trade Room

This is a very limited invitation to join up to 100 other traders in a private trading room.

Yes, it’s a trading room. You’re going to learn the strategies used. If you purchase the MJF1 AutoTrader you are going to learn how to trade using it, i.e. when, how and which settings to change to accurately reflect the “market moods”.  

You see, you get so much more when you hook up with a committed group of traders. You’ll learn a number of different strategies that work in the now.   We all know markets change and strategies always need to evolve and change too. That’s a fact you can’t ignore.

To get started you’ll be able to try our strategies.  Run with them as is or evolve them to suit your style.

It’s powerful.
In my experience, the path to profitable trading has turned towards removing the “human factor”.

It used to be simpler to trade in terms of being able to label the market as bullish or bearish and then knowing how and when to trade.

But over the years, and particularly with electronic trading, it became much more complex. You can’t make bullish or bearish statements that actually mean anything in terms of making a good decision anymore.

People still do it, but it’s certainly not the basis for a sound trading decision. At any given time there are many groups and factions of traders in the market, all with their own particular reasons to be there.

There are day traders, index arbitrage traders, options traders, and a myriad of different algorithms at work. If you sit and try to figure out why they are buying or selling, believing the answer will enable you to make a good trading decision, you’re going to be wrong most of the time because there’s more than just one predominant reason the market is moving in a particular direction.

 I attempt to take that kind of thinking out of the equation.

To put it another way, I focus on the actual basics and keep it simple. When you over-analyze, rationalize, come up with theories – even if they are informed by years of experience – you are either going to miss the trade or make a decision that is actually based on nothing real and therefore it won’t bring you consistent results.

The news is a good example of analysis that is a waste of time. They change their mind every other day. Clearly, their job is to engage their audience, but it doesn’t really matter if they say it’s going up or down – as long as they have some half-credible reasoning to back it up. And everyone knows it’s just a theory, anyway.

So to truly take advantage of what this opportunity can offer you, I’ve put several things in place:

1. A virtual room where we can meet that is secure and private.

2. A trading schedule: We meet and trade, Monday through Friday – with the room opening at 5:00 AM PDT and remaining open until 9:00 AM PDT.

4. Initial List of Traded Futures:
Euro – /6E, e-mini – /ES, Gold – /GC, NDX – /NQ, 30 yr bond -/ZB, Crude Oil – /CL

5. The MJF1  AutoTrader is now available for purchase.

What Kind of Trader are we Looking For?

You should have a good knowledge of trading. In general terms, that means about a year of experience. This is not a beginner’s room where we teach the basics or hold your hand through every trade. There’s always something new in the markets! If you’re a total newbie, you’re welcome to join, watch, learn – but please don’t come in expecting to learn trading basics.

We’re going to be focused on trading – you’ll see us take live trades daily.  We’ll also have time to discuss trades, strategy, the markets and how all of that is impacting our choices of what to do next.

To join, you’ll pay:

$200 per month membership fee for unlimited access to the room. The Trade Room is paid on a month to month basis.  Because of this, we do not offer trials to the room at this time. You can leave or come back whenever you want as long as there is space, there are no penalties.

The MJF1 Auto Trader is available for purchase for $1000, which includes the software license.  The first 10 licenses purchased by new members will receive a 25% discount.

Note: you will never be “sold” on taking any strategy or trade. Everything we do and everything that gets discussed is there for you to “take it or leave it.” Run with what works for you and leave the rest, that’s what the Logical Signals Trading Room is all about.

Signing Up

After you sign up, you’ll receive login access to the trading room and you’ll be added to our special member’s list where we’ll let you know about everything that is happening in the group: special webinars, and what we think is worth taking a look at in the markets.

Get started

 

IMPORTANT!

BY SIGNING UP, YOU AGREE TO THE FOLLOWING:

 

Stocks, Options, and Futures trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the Stock, Options, and Futures Markets. Don’t trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell stocks and/or derivatives. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

All material presented within The Logical Signals Live Trade Room (MJF1 Partners, LLC) is not to be regarded as investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. Day trading does involve risk, so caution must always be utilized. We cannot guarantee profits or freedom from loss. You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. MJF1 Partners, LLC, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, its contractors, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. We recommend consulting with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. If you choose to invest with or without seeking advice from such an advisor or entity, then any consequences resulting from your investments are your sole responsibility.
All information posted is believed to come from reliable sources.

MJF1 Partners LLC does not warrant the accuracy, correctness, or completeness of information available from its service and therefore will not be liable for any loss incurred. Due to the electronic nature of the Internet, this website, and e-mail distribution services could fail at any given time.

MJF1 Partners, LLC will not be responsible for unavailability of use of its website or e-mails due to Internet bandwidth problems, equipment failure, or acts of God.

There is no guarantee past performance will be indicative of future results.

Until we formally meet,

Michael Filighera
Logical Signals

P.S. As part of this group, you’re not just a name on a list – I hope that’s abundantly clear from the above. To put a fine point on it, your success is vital to me and the rest of the group – that’s why these groups are so valuable to the members. So if you ever have a question, comment or concern – be sure to stay in close contact with me!

About MichaelMichaelFilighera-headshot

Michael Filighera has been involved with the financial markets since 1979 when he got his start on the Pacific Stock Exchange Options trading floor. He has traded on the London Traded Options Market, Amsterdam’s European Options Exchange and DTB in Germany.

Michael’s technical analysis pieces covering the major indices, bonds, currencies and commodities of Europe and the U.S. have been published internationally on SeekingAlpha, European Traders Daily, Global Market Strategist, and GMS Techstreet.com.

As a Market Maker on the San Francisco, Amsterdam and London options trading floors he studied the psychology both employed and self-employed by the most successful traders.

Michael’s mission at Logical Signals is to present analysis and tools that contribute to being able to step into the panic and chaos of the markets and with calm precision and pull out the opportunities from the eye of the storm.

Michael lives in San Francisco where he continues to analyze, trade and research the markets.

Removing the Human Factor is Not Total – Part I Chart $GC

I start with an apology for missing very consistently my own objective to post on a more frequent basis.  Amazing how easy it becomes when “I” get in the way of achieving “my” objectives.  In my own defense, I have been working diligently on the MJF1 Partners’ auto trader.  I’m excited to bring it to the LogicalSignals Trade Room where I’m already testing it in real time.  The results are exciting.

NormalVariableRandomI have often stated, “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.”  In doing so I’ve had to quiet more times than not the “trader” in me.  Why?  Because the trader has emotions and emotions can interrupt the decision processes, by hesitating.  Computers, on the other hand, don’t hesitate.  They have their marching orders and execute them.  As “traders” we need to understand that there are a myriad of algorithms in operation firing off orders at all times conceivably in all traded markets.  Add to that the myriad of strategies that are at play via the myriad of algorithms in operation firing off orders at all times conceivably in all traded markets.  Get the picture?  To be successful in trading  you really can’t care about the “who, what, where, when or why.”  Remember it’s only a number.  And many relevant numbers are being processed simultaneously and disseminated to massive amounts of servers across the globe operating algorithms written by MIT graduates.  The amount of $’s flying around the world in need of a temporary resting place is substantial.  And at the moment, the sheer volumes bring opportunities some will say come every 4 years as the battle for political control in the U.S. continues in a perpetual state of transition.  Having the right mindset has become critical to succeeding. Getting caught up in all the hubris taking place within the current election cycle is important to pay attention to, but don’t fall into that abyss.

binaryeventI don’t have an opinion of the markets that I choose to trade.  For the most part,  I’ve stopped thinking about the necessity to understand what fair value for the underlying should or shouldn’t be.  I think of “cents” instead of the “dollars” and the probability and random variable theory as measured by volatility.

As I’ve previously discussed, anticipating versus participating becomes heavily favored towards participating.   Opportunities are abundant across a wide variety of tradeable markets and are likely to remain in their various forms of “transition” through the balance of 2016.  It isn’t easy to just step into a market that you haven’t traded before based purely on computer generated signals.  But when trading in tune with the volatile price swings, the rewards are extremely encouraging.  While there are “traders” in all of us the concept of “removing the human factor” can’t be total.  The input will always be traceable back to a human being. Therefore, I’ve had to embrace the 21st century and abandon the reality of the trading floor and accept the realities of a virtual trading floor, which is, for the most part anonymous.

I am resolved in accepting the direction that my trading has taken  by shifting from primarily trading options to primarily trading futures.  Since I’ve kept close tabs on the “economic pecking order” and with, interest rates sitting at the top from which everything else flows into and out of,  I’ve been able to get comfortable trading futures.   Currently in “pecking order” this includes futures on bonds, US$/EUR, (6E), precious metals, and stock indices.  I’m looking to re-engage trading within the forex markets as well.

The discussion will continue —

gold$Gold has come back into play over the past week or so as global markets move in tandem with the US $ against the Euro and the Yen. With volatility getting kicked up several notches the opportunities for “runners” of 20 to 50 ticks is occurring with more regularity.  I would anticipate that this will remain the case as the US Dollar is pulled into the global transitions happening within China, Japan, and the European Union.

Check out the chart for today’s trades and discussion.

2016-05-04_14-33-34_Gold

Humility is a Learned Virtue, Chart, $CL

High-resolution 3d rendered binary tunnel for technology backgrounds

There are days when the markets are likely overwhelmed by the extreme flood of data flowing in and out.  The type of day when sudden and extreme moves paint 50 bars in all directions all at once on your chart, that happens to be hooked up to its own algorithm to generate buy and sell signals, which get fired off in succession, creating varying intensities of magnitude.  It continues to become apparent to me that actual market experience of knowing how to trade may be lacking.  Reactions are often nothing more than computer operators forgetting to turn off the algorithm before major economic news is released.  That was Crude today

Imagine then the algorithms that are triggered into action according to the movement of a multitude of indicators, chart styles, time frames, other markets (sometimes related and most of the time well maybe) and whatever else could trigger a buy or sell order.  That has been several of the markets lately. Out of the bunch that I am more prone to trade, crude, ($CL) and the S&P, ($ES) were front and center on Thursday.

humility2Now for the humility lesson: I as many already know run a trade room – we are a small group of hard working folks trading crude, the ES, and YM primarily – and we focus on trading.  We are focused on signals, market awareness, and personal awareness. When any of the three aforementioned “traits” gets skewed it takes additional knowledge – to know when to hold them and know when to fold and reverse them.  That more often than not is to understand your “opponent.”  Oh, in addition, there are many, many, many “opponents.”  Not to drive any nails here, but the level of trading experience or maybe better said the level of understanding of how to actually “trade” appears to be lacking at times.   To the point in crude today, I ran into algorithms firing off larger buy orders that swung prices radically higher.  An algorithm doesn’t look before it leaps – they never have.  It just receives the order to buy 250 futures and proceeds to execute.  Now, today was even more “inexperienced”, mainly because I have to think the “coder” sitting in front of the computer didn’t realize that they just paid too much.  After hitting the “off” button or the order was butchered getting filled there was a multitude of sell orders that cascaded the market lower as hundreds of contracts traded.   My main signal generator is very sensitive to momentum and fires more quickly from buy to sell and vice versa.  Using a tighter stop with a more sensitive signal generator can create a fast sequence of losses.  Knowing when to take risk or reduce it is critical to holding a winner or cutting a loser.  By the same token knowing when to fire an order to be more effective is just as important to holding a winner or cutting a loser.

So, today by the fourth time another algorithm triggered my stop caused an emotional chain reaction in me. One that included pounding said desktop, cussing at said screens, throwing of said tantrums.  Thankfully there was just one other very understanding member there to witness the scene.  I’m grateful to have had the experience of being able to explain what NOT to do as well as what to do.  As painful as it can be the cure is to reaccess your signals, market awareness, and at times most importantly your personal awareness.  Whether that entails continuing to trade, taking a break, or stopping for the day.

selfawarenessGetting into the habit of continually checking in on your personal awareness is critical to being able to participate and not anticipate.  Of being able to not fall prey to self or otherwise perceived market “bad trading”.  I don’t believe it is impossible to trade a smaller account in crude, the S&P or even the bonds.  You just need to be able to swing with the “extensions” or “late comer” type moves.  The market doesn’t need to adhere to my thoughts on direction, that will happen on its own.  However, I do need to remain focused and in tune with what is happening and not worry about the intraday hiccups by other algorithms.  As long as my signal generators continue to fire I know the probability of being in the market when the larger moves take place is very high.

Ok, so the “moral” of the post.  I let my emotions get in the way of staying in the market and therefore, gave the broker more than I gave myself.  In my book, that can be a big ‘no-no.’  Acceptable, of course.  Consistent not a good trade. Particularly when the result that occurred after my tirade against ” damn inexperienced algorithms” resulted in a net gain of 105 ticks or $1050 per contract.  If this happens to you, please do the right thing.  Pick yourself up realize where the problem arose from – take the appropriate actions to remedy things and then decide what is next.  If your choice is to stop trading remember that what ever happens after is important but only as a strong example of staying in the game!  Not allowing your focus to be crushed by yourself.

Check out the $CL chart below for a more detailed look at today’s mid day action.

2016-02-11_16-34-24_CL

Is there a Wow Factor? Chart, $ES

wowfactorThe answer to the title question is an unequivocal “Yes.”  It could be the widening of your eyes in amazement as the $ES trades in a 20 to 30  point range both to the downside and upside in 30 to 75-minute increments for a good five hours straight.  Using the right tools, (signal generator and a good auto trader) gives you a strong probability of pulling many, many ticks as the hoards of dollars get tossed about.  Wow is actually the word most often heard when this type of volatility is at your finger tips to take advantage of.

wile_e_coyoteThen why is that so many of us “gnats” are getting caught up in an old habit of “anticipate.”  That level of frustration you feel is when you realize it has happened again.  There was that moment of hesitation or disbelief in the signal change.  That nagging voice of doubt saying you are buying/selling too soon or too late.  When this happens I don’t know about you but I always feel like Wile. E. Coyote trying to stop himself before heading over the cliff.

I suggested yesterday that as “gnats” we need to participate and not anticipate.  To do the latter first literally never gets the sequence of events rolling.  The cause of not participating is similar but most often generated by different emotional memories within each of us.

Trading without emotions is of course, dependent on getting to the root, making some adjustments, and moving forward towards participating with comfort and ease.  Remember your competition, for the most part, doesn’t have emotions – at least on a participating basis.  There are hundreds if not thousands of algorithms calculating in just about all markets and firing off thousands of orders to buy and sell thousands of different forex, treasuries, equities, commodities, precious metals in cash, options, futures and other forms of derivatives.  The nominal value boggles the mind but it is safe to say that talented firms and traders have the ability to step in and facilitate buyers and sellers in exchanging their dollars and keep a tidy sum for themselves in the process.

wile_e_coyote_2The ongoing discussion remains to give up the old habits of having to know the who, what, where, when and why of every move before you’ll commit to participating.  Doing this allows doubt and fear into the equation and trying to work back to “participate” gets delayed even more.  There’s always trying to cover your procrastination by attempting to “play it safe” and put a bid or offer in the market that just “doesn’t” get filled – oh well!  Breaking a habit takes 28 days or so they say.  If we consider how many days, weeks and years we have given up to our “bad habits” taking 28 days to break them doesn’t seem like such a huge price to pay.

Dictionary.com defines “probability/statistics” as:

Probability / Statistics.

  1. the relative possibility that an event will occur, as expressed by the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.
  2. the relative frequency with which an event occurs or is likely to occur.

It then becomes logical to conclude that when we anticipate more than participate we dramatically reduce the probability of success and that can be statistically shown.  Learning to move beyond our “bad habits” can be acheived.  The conversation is ongoing.

 

Check out the $ES chart which covers trading from 6:30 AM to 8:00 AM PST

2016-02-09_19-24-20_S&P_$ES

 

Markets In Transition..Continues – Part III

FATCAT_WALLSTI’m not sure what the BofA analyst is saying regarding China’s FX reserve numbers.  They reported a drop of $99.5 billion and that ‘kicked the can’ down the road for the US dollar for the time being.   There was a major shift of capital back into treasuries and out of equities and some commodities.  However, it would appear that while the Chinese Central Bank is attempting to pass the hot potato back to the dollar by defending the Yuan.  At the same time though with so many moving parts it is difficult to tell how severe the burns are.  The chain from the Yuan to the U.S. dollar and back can get tossed between several markets and sectors before it ends up back at the central banks.

2030capitalaztionchartglobalWithout a doubt, we are seeing some very high stakes being played out on an international monetary scale.  It would seem that to shift out of U.S. dollar positions has taken precedence and is more important than extending the stability of the global economy’s leader or number two is bound and determined to push itself into the number one position.   How that then transcends from one market to the next should always lead back to the currencies of the two major players, the U.S. and China.  At the moment, the pecking order remains fairly in line with the chart from last week, although I would lean more towards the top three being the U.S., China, and the EU.

Back to the markets responses to the China FX reserve number. While we wait for the interested parties to figure out how to prop up their economies without upsetting the proverbial “apple cart” there are more opportunities to trade than this mere human can keep track of — it has become essential to have a solid ‘auto-trader’ that performs for the better part – flawlessly.  Without it, I remain committed to the discussion of trading without emotions and operating with a tested and trusted signal generator. And without a less than expected number from China, the equity markets, of course, continued on their current trajectory with sudden and in some cases “Sid Vicious” turns.  It remains to be seen as to whether China will be able to reel in the mass exodus of reserve currencies.  At the moment the harder they attempt to prop up the yuan through the front door, by selling U.S. dollar reserves that are leaving out the back door and being moved back into the U.S. markets hand over fist!  The illusion remains that the U.S. has the best promise of a return.  The game remains afoot.

Check out the charts on the $ES for trades and discussion.

2016-02-08_15-49-38S&P_630_730

2016-02-08_18-40-34_S&P830_1250

 

 

Markets in Transition – Crude Oil

As I began my last post I continue to understand the trading mantra, “I don’t care.”  I do care as to whether the shift in trend is towards buying or selling, but I don’t care about the why or what or where.  This, for the most part, allows me to concentrate on the momentum. The strength of the momentum determines the trend, whether that be on an hourly basis or a tick basis.  When you consider momentum on an hourly or daily basis it becomes more attached to a “binary event.”

Binary Events come in various sizes with regard to “strength” and “intensity”.  Tsunami’s are predicted according to the strength and intensity of an earthquake.  The stronger the quake the greater probability for a larger,  more intense tsunami in the form of a massive wall of water carrying literally tons of momentum.  As it rolls over land it obliterates everything in its path.  Weekly reports on crude can and often do provide many opportunities to trade once the violent knee jerk motion subsides and I would not consider some of them to be major in strength or intensity.  However, the further the “quake” goes up the chain towards reaching – foreign currency reserves – namely the U.S. dollar the resulting tsunami will roll across many commodities and sectors.

binaryeventHere’s the caveat, the canary in the coal mine, the domino that kicks off the race to the exits in all it’s forms, being either from the long side or short side.  China is expected to report that its total FX reserves declined $3.2125 trillion from $3.3 trillion.  A drop of approximately $118 billion.  Which the world needs to see in order to keep the “status quo” or a continuance of the quietly higher massive December 2015 outflow of $108 billion.

So, a reported number that would be below $118 billion or substantially below for January 2016 outflows would kickstart in mass  a short squeeze across the board in most commodity and materials linked sectors.

Here’s what BofA strategist Claudio Piron is expecting – a far smaller outflow.

“We forecast China FX reserve changes and estimate a USD37.5bn fall in January – (USD29.1bn decline adjusting for a negative FX valuation effect). Note that the standard error of the forecast is large at USD24.5bn, which would give us a downside of USD84.5bn fall. We caution that this is guidance and we attempt to be as transparent as possible so investors can gauge the odds in what is a key release for the markets. Note too this is based on onshore CNY FX volumes and our estimate maybe biased down as there are no real time volumes for offshore CNH.”

 

Futures Traders Should Participate Not Anticipate– the current volatility should remain high in that the markets may be bracing or be subject to a larger “trend change” from short to long – ala a massive short squeeze.  Should that be the case – do your best not to trade with emotions and let your signal generator do its work.  A larger “player” short squeeze should switch the “runners” to the upside.  Protect yourself against the urge to succumb to “counter trend” trading.  You don’t want to be missing out on all the fun so participate instead of attempting to anticipate the next turn in the other direction.  Which, by the way, is likely to be much shallower than you think because those needing to cover shorts will create an avalanche of demand as the various derivative traders get involved.  It will be best to keep focused on the trading mantra –  “I don’t care” about the “who, what, when, or wheres.”

Check out the chart below for a snippet of Friday’s trade in Crude – “CL”  I trade using a tick chart and with prices moving all over the map to squeeze together the day would be to miss the trees in favor of the forest.  The chart included is the time I traded, which is 6 to 8 AM PST.  The balance of Friday’s session reflected a quickly changing market as it appeared several larger traders were “somewhat” squaring positions or just plain out taking sides.

2016-02-06_17-22-53_CRUDE

The gross ticks from the indicator “signal to signal” performance was +123 ticks.  Net numbers depend on your commission rate and “slippage.”  Deducting 25 ticks as “cost” would put the net ticks at +98 ticks or $980 per contract trading the front month – in two hours.

Sunday brings the perfect front for US retail traders – The 50th Super Bowl.  China will report their FX reserve numbers during the game — Globex opens at 6 PM EST – 3 PM PST – Do you know where your position is?