Trade Room Now Open For New Members

Trade Room Now Open For New Members

I’ve have received several requests from interested traders on how they can join the Logical Signals Trade Room.  I have some GREAT NEWS!

The room is now open for up to an additional 100 traders.

I have some exciting new things to share.

New MJF1 AutoTrader: I have worked diligently over the past 6 months with a superior software engineer in developing an auto trader. We have tested it extensively to ensure there aren’t any “bugs”, and it is now available for purchase for members of the room. I have developed the proper working settings for each of the markets currently traded:

Crude Oil (CL), DJIA (YM), S&P 500 (ES), NASDAQ 100 (NQ), EuroDollar (6E), Gold (GC) and the 30 – year bond (ZB).

Members purchasing the MJF1 Auto Trader receive extensive training in its use.

As always, I am purposely limiting the number of members in order to be able to provide a high level of coaching and mentoring during the trading session.


Live Trade Analysis: We share our full analysis for every trade we take, including when we plan to enter and why, where our stop will be, and where our profit targets will be.

Instruction: We offer ongoing instruction in the use of the MJF1 Auto trader (for those who purchase it). We teach you how to identify when the market is trending or ranging and how to spot the best times to take a trade. We wait patiently and let our trade set ups come to us. It is as important, or possibly more important, to know when NOT to take a trade as it is when to take a trade.

Live Discussion: Including several factors of trading such as psychology, risk management, position sizing and much more.

We all know the combined knowledge of a group of experts is infinitely more powerful than going it alone. And the bottom line is a whole lot fatter when you can leverage the knowledge of a group.


Sometimes these groups are just five people. Sometimes more than 100. They can last for years or just a few months.  And they’ve kept me sane. It’s easy to go nuts when you spend too much time on your own.

Now You Can Join the Logical Signals Trade Room

This is a very limited invitation to join up to 100 other traders in a private trading room.

Yes, it’s a trading room. You’re going to learn the strategies used. If you purchase the MJF1 AutoTrader you are going to learn how to trade using it, i.e. when, how and which settings to change to accurately reflect the “market moods”.  

You see, you get so much more when you hook up with a committed group of traders. You’ll learn a number of different strategies that work in the now.   We all know markets change and strategies always need to evolve and change too. That’s a fact you can’t ignore.

To get started you’ll be able to try our strategies.  Run with them as is or evolve them to suit your style.

It’s powerful.
In my experience, the path to profitable trading has turned towards removing the “human factor”.

It used to be simpler to trade in terms of being able to label the market as bullish or bearish and then knowing how and when to trade.

But over the years, and particularly with electronic trading, it became much more complex. You can’t make bullish or bearish statements that actually mean anything in terms of making a good decision anymore.

People still do it, but it’s certainly not the basis for a sound trading decision. At any given time there are many groups and factions of traders in the market, all with their own particular reasons to be there.

There are day traders, index arbitrage traders, options traders, and a myriad of different algorithms at work. If you sit and try to figure out why they are buying or selling, believing the answer will enable you to make a good trading decision, you’re going to be wrong most of the time because there’s more than just one predominant reason the market is moving in a particular direction.

 I attempt to take that kind of thinking out of the equation.

To put it another way, I focus on the actual basics and keep it simple. When you over-analyze, rationalize, come up with theories – even if they are informed by years of experience – you are either going to miss the trade or make a decision that is actually based on nothing real and therefore it won’t bring you consistent results.

The news is a good example of analysis that is a waste of time. They change their mind every other day. Clearly, their job is to engage their audience, but it doesn’t really matter if they say it’s going up or down – as long as they have some half-credible reasoning to back it up. And everyone knows it’s just a theory, anyway.

So to truly take advantage of what this opportunity can offer you, I’ve put several things in place:

1. A virtual room where we can meet that is secure and private.

2. A trading schedule: We meet and trade, Monday through Friday – with the room opening at 5:00 AM PDT and remaining open until 9:00 AM PDT.

4. Initial List of Traded Futures:
Euro – /6E, e-mini – /ES, Gold – /GC, NDX – /NQ, 30 yr bond -/ZB, Crude Oil – /CL

5. The MJF1  AutoTrader is now available for purchase.

What Kind of Trader are we Looking For?

You should have a good knowledge of trading. In general terms, that means about a year of experience. This is not a beginner’s room where we teach the basics or hold your hand through every trade. There’s always something new in the markets! If you’re a total newbie, you’re welcome to join, watch, learn – but please don’t come in expecting to learn trading basics.

We’re going to be focused on trading – you’ll see us take live trades daily.  We’ll also have time to discuss trades, strategy, the markets and how all of that is impacting our choices of what to do next.

To join, you’ll pay:

$200 per month membership fee for unlimited access to the room. The Trade Room is paid on a month to month basis.  Because of this, we do not offer trials to the room at this time. You can leave or come back whenever you want as long as there is space, there are no penalties.

The MJF1 Auto Trader is available for purchase for $1000, which includes the software license.  The first 10 licenses purchased by new members will receive a 25% discount.

Note: you will never be “sold” on taking any strategy or trade. Everything we do and everything that gets discussed is there for you to “take it or leave it.” Run with what works for you and leave the rest, that’s what the Logical Signals Trading Room is all about.

Signing Up

After you sign up, you’ll receive login access to the trading room and you’ll be added to our special member’s list where we’ll let you know about everything that is happening in the group: special webinars, and what we think is worth taking a look at in the markets.

Get started





Stocks, Options, and Futures trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the Stock, Options, and Futures Markets. Don’t trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell stocks and/or derivatives. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

All material presented within The Logical Signals Live Trade Room (MJF1 Partners, LLC) is not to be regarded as investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. Day trading does involve risk, so caution must always be utilized. We cannot guarantee profits or freedom from loss. You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. MJF1 Partners, LLC, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, its contractors, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. We recommend consulting with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. If you choose to invest with or without seeking advice from such an advisor or entity, then any consequences resulting from your investments are your sole responsibility.
All information posted is believed to come from reliable sources.

MJF1 Partners LLC does not warrant the accuracy, correctness, or completeness of information available from its service and therefore will not be liable for any loss incurred. Due to the electronic nature of the Internet, this website, and e-mail distribution services could fail at any given time.

MJF1 Partners, LLC will not be responsible for unavailability of use of its website or e-mails due to Internet bandwidth problems, equipment failure, or acts of God.

There is no guarantee past performance will be indicative of future results.

Until we formally meet,

Michael Filighera
Logical Signals

P.S. As part of this group, you’re not just a name on a list – I hope that’s abundantly clear from the above. To put a fine point on it, your success is vital to me and the rest of the group – that’s why these groups are so valuable to the members. So if you ever have a question, comment or concern – be sure to stay in close contact with me!

About MichaelMichaelFilighera-headshot

Michael Filighera has been involved with the financial markets since 1979 when he got his start on the Pacific Stock Exchange Options trading floor. He has traded on the London Traded Options Market, Amsterdam’s European Options Exchange and DTB in Germany.

Michael’s technical analysis pieces covering the major indices, bonds, currencies and commodities of Europe and the U.S. have been published internationally on SeekingAlpha, European Traders Daily, Global Market Strategist, and GMS

As a Market Maker on the San Francisco, Amsterdam and London options trading floors he studied the psychology both employed and self-employed by the most successful traders.

Michael’s mission at Logical Signals is to present analysis and tools that contribute to being able to step into the panic and chaos of the markets and with calm precision and pull out the opportunities from the eye of the storm.

Michael lives in San Francisco where he continues to analyze, trade and research the markets.

Removing the Human Factor is Not Total – Part I Chart $GC

I start with an apology for missing very consistently my own objective to post on a more frequent basis.  Amazing how easy it becomes when “I” get in the way of achieving “my” objectives.  In my own defense, I have been working diligently on the MJF1 Partners’ auto trader.  I’m excited to bring it to the LogicalSignals Trade Room where I’m already testing it in real time.  The results are exciting.

NormalVariableRandomI have often stated, “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.”  In doing so I’ve had to quiet more times than not the “trader” in me.  Why?  Because the trader has emotions and emotions can interrupt the decision processes, by hesitating.  Computers, on the other hand, don’t hesitate.  They have their marching orders and execute them.  As “traders” we need to understand that there are a myriad of algorithms in operation firing off orders at all times conceivably in all traded markets.  Add to that the myriad of strategies that are at play via the myriad of algorithms in operation firing off orders at all times conceivably in all traded markets.  Get the picture?  To be successful in trading  you really can’t care about the “who, what, where, when or why.”  Remember it’s only a number.  And many relevant numbers are being processed simultaneously and disseminated to massive amounts of servers across the globe operating algorithms written by MIT graduates.  The amount of $’s flying around the world in need of a temporary resting place is substantial.  And at the moment, the sheer volumes bring opportunities some will say come every 4 years as the battle for political control in the U.S. continues in a perpetual state of transition.  Having the right mindset has become critical to succeeding. Getting caught up in all the hubris taking place within the current election cycle is important to pay attention to, but don’t fall into that abyss.

binaryeventI don’t have an opinion of the markets that I choose to trade.  For the most part,  I’ve stopped thinking about the necessity to understand what fair value for the underlying should or shouldn’t be.  I think of “cents” instead of the “dollars” and the probability and random variable theory as measured by volatility.

As I’ve previously discussed, anticipating versus participating becomes heavily favored towards participating.   Opportunities are abundant across a wide variety of tradeable markets and are likely to remain in their various forms of “transition” through the balance of 2016.  It isn’t easy to just step into a market that you haven’t traded before based purely on computer generated signals.  But when trading in tune with the volatile price swings, the rewards are extremely encouraging.  While there are “traders” in all of us the concept of “removing the human factor” can’t be total.  The input will always be traceable back to a human being. Therefore, I’ve had to embrace the 21st century and abandon the reality of the trading floor and accept the realities of a virtual trading floor, which is, for the most part anonymous.

I am resolved in accepting the direction that my trading has taken  by shifting from primarily trading options to primarily trading futures.  Since I’ve kept close tabs on the “economic pecking order” and with, interest rates sitting at the top from which everything else flows into and out of,  I’ve been able to get comfortable trading futures.   Currently in “pecking order” this includes futures on bonds, US$/EUR, (6E), precious metals, and stock indices.  I’m looking to re-engage trading within the forex markets as well.

The discussion will continue —

gold$Gold has come back into play over the past week or so as global markets move in tandem with the US $ against the Euro and the Yen. With volatility getting kicked up several notches the opportunities for “runners” of 20 to 50 ticks is occurring with more regularity.  I would anticipate that this will remain the case as the US Dollar is pulled into the global transitions happening within China, Japan, and the European Union.

Check out the chart for today’s trades and discussion.


What or Who is Behind the Buying in Crude, $CL

oil(greenup)With the myriad of players moving in and out of the Crude Oil markets and its affiliate or component products Heating Oil and Unleaded Gasoline, it becomes a definitive benefit to reference a “larger picture” view.  This helps determine the trend and prevents countertrend trading when the markets move into a transition from one level to the next.  Keeping the larger trend in focus removes some misaligned hesitation allowing us as traders to “participate” not “anticipate”.   Keeping the larger trend in focus puts and keeps in perspective, the direction of “runners”.  Trades that carry the potential and probability of posting 20, 30 or 40+ tick gains.

Bear in mind that while I continue to advocate trading without caring about the who, what, where, when and how, I do advocate the benefit of establishing the trend both on an intraday basis and then on an hourly and daily basis. Having somewhat of an understanding of the above mentioned adverbs as they pertain to trading and being more specific day trading, is useful.

elliottwaveIn previous posts, I have discussed the Elliott Wave count that has been underway in crude oil off of the 2008 highs at 147.27.  The monthly and weekly charts continue to follow a clear path that keeps the longer term trend down for now.  The current “bounce” off of the 26 level lows seen in January is best viewed as a 4th wave correction within an ongoing larger 5 wave sequence down. This larger 5 wave sequence down will complete the “C” wave down of the larger A-B-C decline off of the 147.27 high.

So, to recap progress thus far: Wave “A” down began in July 2008 and completed at January 2009 low at 33.20.  Wave “B” rallied back to the high in August 2013 at 112.25.  From that point then wave “C” has been unfolding and has thus far completed waves 1 – 4, which completed at high in May 2015 at 62.58.  Wave 5 of “C” will ultimately form it’s own 5 waves as it completes the larger parttern.  Within wave “5” of “C” internal waves 1-3 are complete and a smaller 4th wave bounce has been underway of the 26.05 low in February 2016.  While the potential remains in place that this smaller 4th wave is complete at last weeks 34.21 high the possibility of a finishing rally back above the 36 level remains in the picture for now.  Another possibility is that crude is forming a triangle pattern which will keep it in a tight trading range between 34.35 and 29.50 before completing and thrusting the market lower as the final decline begins.

crackspreadBack to today’s post title; the “What” last week was the contract roll out of March into April for both options and futures.  This week the focus appears to be back on the “crack” spread.  Wikipedia defines the crack spread as follows:

“Crack spread” is a term used in the oil industry and futures trading for the differential between the price of crude oil and petroleum products extracted from it – that is, the profit margin that an oil refinery can expect to make by “cracking” crude oil (breaking its long-chain hydrocarbons into useful shorter-chain petroleum products).

In the futures markets, the “crack spread” is a specific spread trade involving simultaneously buying and selling contracts in crude oil and one or more derivative products, typically gasoline andheating oil. Oil refineries may trade a crack spread to hedge the price risk of their operations, while speculators attempt to profit from a change in the oil/gasoline price differential. – Source Wikipedia © 2016

FATCAT_WALLSTThe “Who” would be oil refining companies and the wealthy families that gleaned all their wealth from “black gold”.  Yes, I do have a few specific players in mind, but I’ll save that for another conversation.  Referring again to Wikipedia for a more pronounced description we can begin to put together the whole picture:

For integrated oil companies that control their entire supply chain from oil production to retail distribution of refined products, there is a natural economic hedge against adverse price movements. For independent oil refiners which purchase crude oil and sell refined products in the wholesale market, adverse price movements can present a significant economic risk. Given a target optimal product mix, an independent oil refiner can attempt to hedge itself against adverse price movements by buying oil futures and selling futures for its primary refined products according to the proportions of its optimal mix.

For simplicity, most refiners wishing to hedge their price exposures have used a crack ratio usually expressed as X:Y:Z where X represents a number of barrels of crude oil, Y represents a number of barrels of gasoline and Z represents a number of barrels of distillate fuel oil, subject to the constraint that X=Y+Z. This crack ratio is used for hedging purposes by buying X barrels of crude oil and selling Y barrels of gasoline and Z barrels of distillate in the futures market. The crack spread X:Y:Z reflects the spread obtained by trading oil, gasoline and distillate according to this ratio. Widely used crack spreads have included 3:2:1, 5:3:2 and 2:1:1.[1] As the 3:2:1 crack spread is the most popular of these, widely quoted crack spread benchmarks are the “Gulf Coast 3:2:1” and the “Chicago 3:2:1”.[citation needed

The following discussion of crack spread contracts comes from the Energy Information Administration publication Derivatives and Risk Management in the Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Electricity Industries:[3]

Refiners’ profits are tied directly to the spread, or difference, between the price of crude oil and the prices of refined products. Because refiners can reliably predict their costs other than crude oil, the spread is their major uncertainty. One way in which a refiner could ensure a given spread would be to buy crude oil futures and sell product futures. Another would be to buy crude oil call options and sell product call options. Both of those strategies are complex, however, and they require the hedger to tie up funds in margin accounts.

To ease this burden, NYMEX in 1994 launched the crack spread contract. NYMEX treats crack spread purchases or sales of multiple futures as a single trade for the purposes of establishing margin requirements. The crack spread contract helps refiners to lock-in a crude oil price and heating oil and unleaded gasoline prices simultaneously in order to establish a fixed refining margin. One type of crack spread contract bundles the purchase of three crude oil futures (30,000 barrels) with the sale a month later of two unleaded gasoline futures (20,000 barrels) and one heating oil future (10,000 barrels). The 3-2-1 ratio approximates the real-world ratio of refinery output—2 barrels of unleaded gasoline and 1 barrel of heating oil from 3 barrels of crude oil. Buyers and sellers concern themselves only with the margin requirements for the crack spread contract. They do not deal with individual margins for the underlying trades.

An average 3-2-1 ratio based on sweet crude is not appropriate for all refiners, however, and the OTC market provides contracts that better reflect the situation of individual refineries. Some refineries specialize in heavy crude oils, while others specialize in gasoline. One thing OTC traders can attempt is to aggregate individual refineries so that the trader’s portfolio is close to the exchange ratios. Traders can also devise swaps that are based on the differences between their clients’ situations and the exchange standards. – Source, Wikipedia © 2016.

Putting on or taking off large positions can create problems as the depth of the market,  in heating oil and unleaded gasoline is much thinner than crude.    Recent news seems to point to a shift in the supply/demand equation creating a situation where larger players need to adjust positions.  On Monday, the bulk of trading in April crude was between 33.68 and 33.38, a relatively small range within the 223 tick intraday range, but a tradeable range when taking into consideration the trend was “up”

Check out today’s $CL chart for trades and discussion:




Happy New Year…Are We There Yet?

The first trading day of 2016 produced an awesome volatile day with many “decoupling’s” taking place.  The finish of one year and the start of the new year often produce numerous “decouplings” as money begins to shift strategy.  China got things going coming into Monday morning with the major equity exchanges shutting down after dropping 7% in 7 minutes.  Being a trader, I live for volatile days. I also freely admit that I need to be careful of what I ask for.  Monday’s markets were a solid case in point.  Major moves across the board complete with “decouplings.”  It became important to not “multi-task” and attempt to trade too many markets.  Even with a large pile of “fun chips”,  it can become frustrating and costly.

fainting_trader_China_2016Word to the wise: please accept and embrace that we used to have the capacity to trade from morning till night, on little or no sleep and trade 100’s of contracts in multiple markets and classes. — Accept that in a given trading today,  there are many strategies firing orders in and out of the markets. News travels at the speed of light as do most trading platforms and as is often the case, there are way too many opportunities to trade.  The added caveat is that all are not going in the same direction at the same time and support/resistance is being reduced to liquid magma flowing  up and downhill as volatility ramps everything up a notch.  The swings can be both joyful and frustrating when “normal” highly correlated  markets “decouple” as the fear factor is thrown into the ring.  This was the case on Sunday afternoon into Monday morning as new years trading started with China kicking a huge, huge can down the Great Wall that rolled around the globe in seconds.

In the world of algorithmic trading, attempting to electronically trade in most of the futures markets using different algorithms will become a daunting task that will sour your spirit if you’re not careful.  Narrowing your focus to two maybe three of your favored futures will allow you to keep tabs on the ability of your trading strategy to actually fire actionable signals properly.

High-resolution 3d rendered binary tunnel for technology backgrounds

Being that, there are numerous strategies trading everything under the sun and that, the desire to trade everything tends to suffer greatly from the ability to actually monitor multiple markets and adjust strategy in line with the larger move(s).  Periods of indecision often produce “choppy” or range bound trading.  Algorithms fire constantly and when a large group either pauses or stops within a particular strategy it creates a vacuum of sorts.  The market will trade in a much tighter range but continue to fire buy and sell signals that meet the strategy guidelines but end up being stopped and reversed for a quick string of losses.  Adjusting strategy to smooth out signals is important and I personally find it much easier to keep that control in line when I apply it to a maximum of three markets on extreme volatile days.

Monday was such a day.

Are We There Yet?

To get back to the question asked in the title of today’s post, the simple answer is no – not likely.  More importantly, though, I believe it remains important to trade each day without an opinion as to what the “fair value” is or should be.  I leave that up to someone else to figure out and trade on.  I do, though, keep track of the weekly and monthly charts and keep an ongoing Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500, the DJIA, the NASDAQ, the Dollar/Euro, Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver.  Over the next week or so I will be updating the “counts” and how that relates all the way down to tick charts.

In the coming week I’ll take a look at Crude Oil.


Monday November 9, 2015 – Today’s Chart(s) $ES, $CL

I’m sure that many traders woke up with the Monday morning “blues” as most markets traded lower.  Regardless of direction, though, there were many opportunities across the board.  If you trade multiple products, it could have been a difficult day trying to keep up with all the signals.  Today was a clear case for good “audibles” from your signal generator.

crude_CLEarly birds in Crude were thrown a monster trade first thing out of the gate Monday with a short from 44.90 staying intact down to 44.25 for a quick 65 ticks.  An hour later the market added desert with an additional 42 tick decline, that ended up adding another 16 ticks to the day.  While the balance of the day provided ample op’s to trade from both the long and short side the net ticks per move contracted a bit.

Overall strategy in the CL netted +120 ticks per contract.  Check out the chart below for today’s trades.




S&P500The equity market indices reeled in some of the “irrational exuberance” on Monday quickly forming a downside chain of kick or hit the bids.  The first two hours of trade were basically contained within sharp periods of selling interspersed with feeble rally attempts or running chop.  The ES began the session with a failed rally attempt as opening orders provided some of the best short entries on the day.  Once “lunch hour” kicked in there were periods of stronger follow through on rallies which ultimately culminated into the last hour push higher. Here as in crude traders were kept busy and I received the same feedback in the Trade Room from YM and NQ traders.


Check out the chart below for today’s trades and discussion:




Crude, $CL Chart 11-02-2015

crude_CLCrude continues to have more “moments” of 20+ tick moves than the equity markets over the last 5 trading sessions.  In the absence of any strong economic or oil related news trading was primarily a steady ebb and flow producing solid enough signals for trading.  Today’s net total of +51 ticks was per contract and using my  “signal to signal” strategy.  This implies that buy or sell entries were taken on all generated signals.  The gross total for Monday was +76 ticks per contract.  I  allow 25 ticks, minimum for slippage and commissions, again based on “one” contract traded.


Check out the chart below for today’s trades: