Markets In Transition..Continues – Part III

FATCAT_WALLSTI’m not sure what the BofA analyst is saying regarding China’s FX reserve numbers.  They reported a drop of $99.5 billion and that ‘kicked the can’ down the road for the US dollar for the time being.   There was a major shift of capital back into treasuries and out of equities and some commodities.  However, it would appear that while the Chinese Central Bank is attempting to pass the hot potato back to the dollar by defending the Yuan.  At the same time though with so many moving parts it is difficult to tell how severe the burns are.  The chain from the Yuan to the U.S. dollar and back can get tossed between several markets and sectors before it ends up back at the central banks.

2030capitalaztionchartglobalWithout a doubt, we are seeing some very high stakes being played out on an international monetary scale.  It would seem that to shift out of U.S. dollar positions has taken precedence and is more important than extending the stability of the global economy’s leader or number two is bound and determined to push itself into the number one position.   How that then transcends from one market to the next should always lead back to the currencies of the two major players, the U.S. and China.  At the moment, the pecking order remains fairly in line with the chart from last week, although I would lean more towards the top three being the U.S., China, and the EU.

Back to the markets responses to the China FX reserve number. While we wait for the interested parties to figure out how to prop up their economies without upsetting the proverbial “apple cart” there are more opportunities to trade than this mere human can keep track of — it has become essential to have a solid ‘auto-trader’ that performs for the better part – flawlessly.  Without it, I remain committed to the discussion of trading without emotions and operating with a tested and trusted signal generator. And without a less than expected number from China, the equity markets, of course, continued on their current trajectory with sudden and in some cases “Sid Vicious” turns.  It remains to be seen as to whether China will be able to reel in the mass exodus of reserve currencies.  At the moment the harder they attempt to prop up the yuan through the front door, by selling U.S. dollar reserves that are leaving out the back door and being moved back into the U.S. markets hand over fist!  The illusion remains that the U.S. has the best promise of a return.  The game remains afoot.

Check out the charts on the $ES for trades and discussion.

2016-02-08_15-49-38S&P_630_730

2016-02-08_18-40-34_S&P830_1250

 

 

Markets in Transition – Crude Oil

As I began my last post I continue to understand the trading mantra, “I don’t care.”  I do care as to whether the shift in trend is towards buying or selling, but I don’t care about the why or what or where.  This, for the most part, allows me to concentrate on the momentum. The strength of the momentum determines the trend, whether that be on an hourly basis or a tick basis.  When you consider momentum on an hourly or daily basis it becomes more attached to a “binary event.”

Binary Events come in various sizes with regard to “strength” and “intensity”.  Tsunami’s are predicted according to the strength and intensity of an earthquake.  The stronger the quake the greater probability for a larger,  more intense tsunami in the form of a massive wall of water carrying literally tons of momentum.  As it rolls over land it obliterates everything in its path.  Weekly reports on crude can and often do provide many opportunities to trade once the violent knee jerk motion subsides and I would not consider some of them to be major in strength or intensity.  However, the further the “quake” goes up the chain towards reaching – foreign currency reserves – namely the U.S. dollar the resulting tsunami will roll across many commodities and sectors.

binaryeventHere’s the caveat, the canary in the coal mine, the domino that kicks off the race to the exits in all it’s forms, being either from the long side or short side.  China is expected to report that its total FX reserves declined $3.2125 trillion from $3.3 trillion.  A drop of approximately $118 billion.  Which the world needs to see in order to keep the “status quo” or a continuance of the quietly higher massive December 2015 outflow of $108 billion.

So, a reported number that would be below $118 billion or substantially below for January 2016 outflows would kickstart in mass  a short squeeze across the board in most commodity and materials linked sectors.

Here’s what BofA strategist Claudio Piron is expecting – a far smaller outflow.

“We forecast China FX reserve changes and estimate a USD37.5bn fall in January – (USD29.1bn decline adjusting for a negative FX valuation effect). Note that the standard error of the forecast is large at USD24.5bn, which would give us a downside of USD84.5bn fall. We caution that this is guidance and we attempt to be as transparent as possible so investors can gauge the odds in what is a key release for the markets. Note too this is based on onshore CNY FX volumes and our estimate maybe biased down as there are no real time volumes for offshore CNH.”

 

Futures Traders Should Participate Not Anticipate– the current volatility should remain high in that the markets may be bracing or be subject to a larger “trend change” from short to long – ala a massive short squeeze.  Should that be the case – do your best not to trade with emotions and let your signal generator do its work.  A larger “player” short squeeze should switch the “runners” to the upside.  Protect yourself against the urge to succumb to “counter trend” trading.  You don’t want to be missing out on all the fun so participate instead of attempting to anticipate the next turn in the other direction.  Which, by the way, is likely to be much shallower than you think because those needing to cover shorts will create an avalanche of demand as the various derivative traders get involved.  It will be best to keep focused on the trading mantra –  “I don’t care” about the “who, what, when, or wheres.”

Check out the chart below for a snippet of Friday’s trade in Crude – “CL”  I trade using a tick chart and with prices moving all over the map to squeeze together the day would be to miss the trees in favor of the forest.  The chart included is the time I traded, which is 6 to 8 AM PST.  The balance of Friday’s session reflected a quickly changing market as it appeared several larger traders were “somewhat” squaring positions or just plain out taking sides.

2016-02-06_17-22-53_CRUDE

The gross ticks from the indicator “signal to signal” performance was +123 ticks.  Net numbers depend on your commission rate and “slippage.”  Deducting 25 ticks as “cost” would put the net ticks at +98 ticks or $980 per contract trading the front month – in two hours.

Sunday brings the perfect front for US retail traders – The 50th Super Bowl.  China will report their FX reserve numbers during the game — Globex opens at 6 PM EST – 3 PM PST – Do you know where your position is?

 

 

 

 

 

Markets In Transition – Economies Too?

financial money economyI fully understand today’s trading mantra of ” I don’t care!”  It makes total sense if you are just trading the number according to what your signal generator is telling you.  However, it can become a nagging problem when the trader in you surfaces and begins to haunt the thought process by questioning the “Who, What, When, and Why family.”  In case, you don’t recall them they usually show up along with their cousins, the twins “Doubt and Fear.”  They often invite themselves in for a “quick” cup of coffee and stay for the day and eat you out of your emotional house and home.  There are many days when being a “gnat on the elephant’s ass” is more difficult than imagined.

2030capitalaztionchartglobalWhen markets are in transition it produces incredible opportunity at the speed of light as thousands of orders race across networks pushing prices in all directions often simultaneously.  Check out the 2030 forecasted capitalization of global equity markets.  The nominal value in US dollars is 284.2 trillion.  According to the Federal Reserve, as of 2015, there are $1.39 trillion in circulation, of which $1.34 trillion are in Federal Reserve Notes.  Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to do the math. I’m not sure how much longer the system can rob Peter to pay Paul when they are both within the top 1/10th of 1%.  With the US and China dominating the world economic stage at the moment it is not a surprise that any international hiccups coming from either country carry the potential to create a global tsunami with an urgency to exchange capital.

When the U.S. dollar makes a substantial move in either direction it forces massive readjustments across the board.  Remember at the top of the “food chain” sits interest rates which are tied directly to the flow of dollars in and out of the various markets.  The U.S. dollar remains the dominant international currency  for trade but the brewing battle amongst the top tier isn’t over, leaving the “pissing contest” between the uber rich in place.

Interesting thought – the list of missing Chinese billionaires continues to grow.  As of the end of 2015, there were 36 missing Chinese executives.  That and a softening economy moving towards experiencing  a good old fashion western economic recession has triggered a recent string of landslides (down 7% within the first 30 minutes of trade) on the Shanghai exchange.  Makes you wonder if the same thing happened to a string of TBTF exec’s on Wall Street would the reaction be one of bewilderment, confusion, and potential panic or one of extreme relief!

Wednesday was the type of volatile trading day that many day traders live for.  Successfully trading it though takes the ability to move very quickly in and out without much regard for anything else but how many ticks you are tossing into your pile versus someone else’s pile.  So here is hopefully the best advice I can give you in developing the skills to step in and trade volatile and incredibly quick price swings.  buybuybuysellsellsell

“Learn to trade without emotions.” 

This is honestly easier said than done.  Ridding oneself of any number of old and no longer useful habits, i.e. the family members I mentioned above, is a process that can be confusing and incredibly frustrating.  But one that commitment to, is essential towards succeeding in rejecting the old habit in favor of embracing the new change.  Often, I have found that the new change can be taking two steps back in order to reset your thinking, and then make the necessary changes to an “old” habit by retooling it to fit your current situation.

Remember the key is being able to reduce and separate the “noise” from “opportunity”. This takes knowing and executing a well-defined strategy which allows you to see opportunities amongst the “chaos.” By trusting the mechanics of your strategy, you will be able to take advantage of them. 

Opportunity continues to knock on our doors.  While it doesn’t come without risk, risk can be defined and more manageable. Volatility and broad moves are exactly what a day trader desires and being able to respond without questioning is a luxury many are unaware of. 

Check out tomorrow’s post for charts of the $CL and $YM with trades and discussion.

Logical Market Update: From That to This & This…

 From that to this & this…

For most of this week the best trading has taken place within the first couple of hours of U.S. trading.  But it appears that once lunchtime rolls through the East and Central time zones volume does a vanishing act.  Which often leaves computers with nothing to do but switch over to selling volatility, which often leads to a resumption of the larger trend as volume returns for the last 10 minutes of trading.  A period of time between 10 minutes prior to 15 minutes after the equities markets “close” that is reserved for price marking. 

The bulls had a tough time making their case on Friday, even with an options expiration “pinning” got skewed with the indexes moving lower.  Russell 2000 traders saw fit to jump in strong this morning but quickly lost steam as the selling opportunities out weighed the buying opportunities.  Bonds, gold and silver did manage to hold higher levels as expected.  The Euro did not take its cue from steady to lower U.S. bond yields with the Dollar again gaining.  Here again, though, the bulk of the move took place during the European session leaving U.S. trade locked in a tight intraday range.  A stronger take away is that the Euro decline may be back underway barring any disruptions to the cross rates.

 

Next week is likely to kick off with some stronger weakness.  Current expectations favor additional downside as the markets correct and consolidate.  The line(s) in the sand lie well below current levels.  While I’m not looking for the mother of all corrections it may feel that way on an intraday basis.  The Elliott Wave patterns continue to favor a sequence of corrections with higher lows followed by rallies to higher highs still being in force.

 

Statistically and cyclically, September and October tend to be down months.  In fact, the most severe downside damage has taken place on a Friday or Monday in September and October and that would include the “crashes” of 1929, 1987, 2001 (Internet Bubble Burst), 2007 (Housing and RMBS), 2008 (Global Financial Meltdown).  Also taken into consideration were the “Flash Crashes.”  All in all during these periods the markets have corrected down.   Volatility has increased substantially; volumes have increased substantially as prices move with a greater velocity, and the move is felt across the equities, treasuries, precious metals, forex, and commodity markets all moving in tandem with regards to direction.

 

As a near-term and intraday trader the move I’m expecting also statistically carries a much higher probability of larger profits as prices swing in both directions.  This type of corrective period does not necessarily get contributed to anything that resembles reality – the larger decline that will be properly tied has yet to be realized.  In fact when it does happen most won’t acknowledge it until it is more than 50% complete.

 

What I’m looking for should be considered as more of a mini version – a practice session played out with real money.

 

I came across a site with some great pics of trading floors of old.  So as an old market maker (San Francisco, London, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt) and in fond remembrance of the years I stood shoulder to shoulder in numerous trading pits I thought it appropriate to share  —

 

Trading has gone from this:

tradingpit20_30YRPIT

 

 And this:

bonds89

 

To this:

high-frequency-trading-NYSE

 

And this:

high-frequency-trading

Which has produced this:

 

gordian_knot

 

 

A “Gordian Knot” an often used metaphor for an intractable problem, such as disentangling the impossible knot by means of cheating or “thinking outside the box”, which is also known as “cutting the Gordian Knot.”

 

 

Using the Hawk Micro Scalper, Falcon Swing Trader, and the Eagle Trend Trader within the equities markets can produce strong results.  Trading equity options can be used to add “beta” to an existing trade or as “the” trading vehicle.   Be sure to check out Part One  – “Options Basics and Understanding Theta is Your Friend” of a seven part series I’ve written on “Trading Options Using the Diversified Trading System” by clicking here.

 

Indicator Warehouse

 

Indicator Warehouse has in my opinion the best platforms available covering a wide range of traders from novice to expert.

 

The Diversified Trading System from Indicator Warehouse offers cost effective products that allow a trader to enter into the “chaos” and trade more effectively.  

 

Trade Manager from Indicator Warehouse automatically calculates the correct amount of contracts or shares based on your account size or market volatility.  Automated stop-loss management and position sizing eliminates most of the problems most individual traders have.  Day trading and position trading both require (actually demand) good risk management.  Trade Manager does the job across the board and is an essential trading tool that ensures that you take the maximum profit from all your trades. 

 

A newer member of the money management tools available from Indicator Warehouse is the Profit Finder – System Back Tester When implemented it allows the user to:

  • Immediately know the impact of parameter changes. 
  • Automatically reads all of your DTS entries and exits
  • Calculates the profit/loss of each trade
  • Performs a wide number of essential intelligence boosting calculations instantly
  • Provides solid details about the effectiveness of your trading strategy/ methodology/ indicators

 

The last two points above are valuable tools to use.  It will show you where some “tweaking” is needed to improve results through the back testing feature. 

 

My point on money rotation and sector rotation is similar to that on parabolic moves that they happen with frequency within many time frames.  As traders these types of moves can be a bonus for day trading or position trading so again don’t get caught up in the “what’s the catch.”    Realizing a rotation is occurring within a stock you trade or a sector is a great source of stocks to plug into the Diversified Trading System.  Allowing DTS to cleanly and beautifully capture the moves though any or all three DTS trading platforms.  Our goal remains to assist traders to make greater profits during all types of markets.  Sector and money rotation is another tool.

 

The Diversified Trading System used together with Trade Manager should continue to produce numerous trading signals in the DJIA, YM (mini), S&P 500, ES (mini), RUT, TF (Russell 2000 mini), AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, NFLX, and LNKD, GS, and Tesla Motors (TSLA).    In the near future I will be adding options strategies to the trading list. 

 

Here is an updated (7/31/2013) list of the markets where I have found that DTS (all three birds) are producing numerous signals.  Continue to bear in mind that there are days when trading opportunities are not as plentiful.  These are days when not trading is likely more profitable than attempting to “force” a trade”:

 

  • DJIA future (e-mini available) – highly recommended for experienced traders
  • S&P-500 future (e-mini available) – highly recommended large intraday moves.
  • Russell 2000 future (e-mini available) – highly recommended can lead in either direction.
  • NASDAQ 100 future (e-mini available) very highly recommended and dominated by AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, and TSLA
  • US$/Euro futures (e-mini available) – very highly recommended – easy to trade afterhours as well.
  • V (Visa) – stock and options – recommended – large swings in both direction likely
  • MA (MasterCard) stock and options – recommended – $600 stock – large swings likely
  • GS (Goldman Sachs) – good two way volume –
  • AAPL (Apple Computer) – highly recommended – Options trading as well
  • GOOG (Google) – highly recommended
  • LNKD (LinkedIn) – solid intraday range
  • NFLX (Netflix) – solid intraday range
  • TSLA (Tesla Motors) – highly recommended 
  • 30-yr Treasury Bond future – highly recommended
  • 10-yr Treasury Note future – solid two way trade
  • TLT (Treasury Bond Long ETF) – very active
  • TBT (Treasury Bond Short ETF) – very active (moves inversely to TLT)
  • Gold (futures and ETF – GLD) very active – not suitable for all traders
  • Silver (futures and ETF – SLV) – very active – not suitable for all traders
  • EURO FX (futures, mini and micro contracts available) very active suitable for all account sizes

 

 

 panultimateHFTsetup

 

 

 

Have a Great Weekend! —

 

Logical Market Update: Day Two – Bulls Attempt to Stage a Comeback

gold forecast

Day Two and the Bulls Attempt to Stage a Comeback – Gold Stocks Back on the Radar – Time to Begin Buying?

The markets followed through on Tuesday’s selling finishing what I’m considering the initial (first) leg down.  Interestingly though, when the bulls moved in to stage their comeback, the volatility indexes were first on the firing line.  By the close a decent bounce higher was in place.  I’m not so sure the markets are convinced though that the drop off of recent highs was just an apparition, with the bulk of the closing madness being on the sell side.  The initial leg down remains in progress and while there may be additional buying tomorrow with the potential for an up day not off the table.  Even the last minute marking battle favored the bears leaving the bulls to push the futures and ETFs after the close.  What a joy it is to know that the exchanges still have a soft spot for their larger players giving them an extra 15 minutes to hedge – yeah right!  Current parameters remain valid for the broader indexes.  Tesla, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, and Groupon reported earnings after the close.  TSLA jumped $18, GMCR fell $6 and GPRN popped up $2.50.  The saying “Only the Good Die Young” is somehow now more believable.   

 

Bonds put in a solid rally today and managed to hold it through most of the day’s gyrations in the equity and forex markets.  Expectations remain in place for a continued recovery rally to unfold before the next leg down takes over.  Again, any clues to direction will likely begin in the 10-year note.  The Dollar got caught between a rock and hard place as the British Pound was pounded into submission after comments from the Bank of England.  The rally in the Euro was again contained to the first hour of U.S. trade with most of the action being within the European sessions.  Most of the U.S. trade was held to a slightly expanded range of 20 ticks. 

 

 

Gold and gold stocks are back on my active radar after the latest bashing brought the gold stocks to gold ratio to a long-term low, further bashing would likely lead to this ratio testing the 2001 lows.  The damage is deep across the board.  Since January 2013 gold has dropped from $1700 to $1180 and gold stocks have fallen more than 50% and that would be amongst what are considered to be the titans within the mining sectors.  Weaker companies were cut off at the knees loosing up to 75%. 

 

The AMEX Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index is a modified equal dollar weighted index.  The component companies are involved in gold mining.  HUI is one of the most watched indices and retains titan status next to the XAU index.  The unhedged part of the index name is the basis for the index.  Its component companies do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years.  The table below lists the current company components and their weighting.   

 

Component Companies (HUI)    
Company name Symbol Weighting 
Goldcorp Inc NYSE: GG

16.20%

Barrick Gold NYSE: ABX

15.37%

Newmont Mining NYSE: NEM

10.88%

Harmony Gold Mining Adr NYSE: HMY

5.21%

Coeur d’Alene Mines NYSE: CDE

5.11%

Yamana Gold NYSE: AUY

5.00%

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd Ads NYSE: AU

4.88%

Gold Fields Ltd Adr NYSE: GFI

4.80%

Randgold Resources Ads NASDAQ: GOLD

4.71%

Iamgoldcorp NYSE: IAG

4.43%

Eldorado Gold Corp NYSE: EGO

4.34%

Hecla Mining NYSE: HL

4.14%

Comp de Minas Buenaventura Ads NYSE: BVN

4.08%

New Gold Inc NYSE MKT: NGD

3.90%

Kinross Gold NYSE: KGC

3.85%

Agnico Eagle Mines NYSE: AEM

3.11%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The HUI Index has been hammered, as the component companies have been sold in step with the decline in physical gold.  Off of the September 2012 high the HUI has dropped 323 points (60%).   Currently 2013 has not seen any favoritism towards the HUI.  But that may be about ready to change.

 

The weekly chart below details the decline beginning off of the September 2011 highs.  The pattern in place, which encompasses the rally off of the 206.66 June 2013 low to the July high at 263, took a lot of momentum to achieve less than 60 points.  The sharp decline in the last two weeks may be the beginning of an exhaustion decline, which could set the stage for a more sustained and dynamic rally.  The stochastic oscillator has again slipped into oversold readings, but has not shown any signs of turning yet.  Currently the HUI is likely to drop to a new low under 206.66 before the next sustained rally phase takes over. 

 HUI_WEEKLY_AUGUST_07_2013-08-07-TOS_CHARTS

An additional important measure of value for gold stocks is the HUI – gold ratio.  The HUI-gold ratio is an expression, which compares the HUI index to the price of gold.  The ratio is calculated by dividing the value of the HUI Index by the price of gold.  Yes, it really is that simple – and here’s the kicker – when this ratio is very high, it correlates to gold stocks being expensive in relationship to gold.  Conversely when the ratio is very low, it correlates to gold stocks being relatively cheap relative to the price of gold.  The HUI-gold ratio bottomed in 2001 reaching a top in 2004. Progressively deeper major lows have occurred in late 2005, late 2008 and June 2013 as the bear market likely moves into its final stages.

 

Bollinger Bandsmeasure the “high” or “low” of the price relative to previous trades and are considered a volatility indicator.  Therefore by definition prices are high at the upper band and low at the lower band.  This definition can help in pattern recognition and when combined with additional indicators help to arrive at decisions as to direction or trend. 

 

The chart below keeps in perspective just how far the HUI has dropped and is likely in the finishing stages before a trend change takes place. 

HUI_WEEKLY_BOLLINGERBANDS_2013-08-07-TOS_CHARTS

It is time to move Gold, the HUI Index, and gold stocks back on the radar.  Opportunities are already presenting themselves and traders that already trade gold via one of the DTS “birds” should find solid profitable opportunities as the bear market finishes and the bull takes the reins.  I will be adding to our list below as this sector jumps back. 

 

 

Indicator Warehouse

 

Indicator Warehouse has in my opinion the best platforms available covering a wide range of traders from novice to expert.

 

The Diversified Trading System from Indicator Warehouse offers cost effective products that allow a trader to enter into the “chaos” and trade more effectively.  

 

Trade Manager from Indicator Warehouse automatically calculates the correct amount of contracts or shares based on your account size or market volatility.  Automated stop-loss management and position sizing eliminates most of the problems most individual traders have.  Day trading and position trading both require (actually demand) good risk management.  Trade Manager does the job across the board and is an essential trading tool that ensures that you take the maximum profit from all your trades. 

 

A newer member of the money management tools available from Indicator Warehouse is the Profit Finder – System Back Tester When implemented it allows the user to:

  • Immediately know the impact of parameter changes. 
  • Automatically reads all of your DTS entries and exits
  • Calculates the profit/loss of each trade
  • Performs a wide number of essential intelligence boosting calculations instantly
  • Provides solid details about the effectiveness of your trading strategy/ methodology/ indicators

 

The last two points above are valuable tools to use.  It will show you where some “tweaking” is needed to improve results through the back testing feature. 

 

My point on money rotation and sector rotation is similar to that on parabolic moves that they happen with frequency within many time frames.  As traders these types of moves can be a bonus for day trading or position trading so again don’t get caught up in the “what’s the catch.”    Realizing a rotation is occurring within a stock you trade or a sector is a great source of stocks to plug into the Diversified Trading System.  Allowing DTS to cleanly and beautifully capture the moves though any or all three DTS trading platforms.  Our goal remains to assist traders to make greater profits during all types of markets.  Sector and money rotation is another tool.

 

The Diversified Trading System used together with Trade Manager should continue to produce numerous trading signals in the DJIA, YM (mini), S&P 500, ES (mini), RUT, TF (Russell 2000 mini), AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, NFLX, and LNKD, GS, and Tesla Motors (TSLA).    In the near future I will be adding options strategies to the trading list. 

 

Here is an updated (7/31/2013) list of the markets where I have found that DTS (all three birds) are producing numerous signals.  Continue to bear in mind that there are days when trading opportunities are not as plentiful.  These are days when not trading is likely more profitable than attempting to “force” a trade”:

 

  • DJIA future (e-mini available) – highly recommended for experienced traders
  • S&P-500 future (e-mini available) – highly recommended large intraday moves.
  • Russell 2000 future (e-mini available) – highly recommended can lead in either direction.
  • NASDAQ 100 future (e-mini available) very highly recommended and dominated by AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, and TSLA
  • US$/Euro futures (e-mini available) – very highly recommended – easy to trade afterhours as well.
  • V (Visa) – stock and options – recommended – large swings in both direction likely
  • MA (MasterCard) stock and options – recommended – $600 stock – large swings likely
  • GS (Goldman Sachs) – good two way volume –
  • AAPL (Apple Computer) – highly recommended – Options trading as well
  • GOOG (Google) – highly recommended
  • LNKD (LinkedIn) – solid intraday range
  • NFLX (Netflix) – solid intraday range
  • TSLA (Tesla Motors) – highly recommended 
  • 30-yr Treasury Bond future – highly recommended
  • 10-yr Treasury Note future – solid two way trade
  • TLT (Treasury Bond Long ETF) – very active
  • TBT (Treasury Bond Short ETF) – very active (moves inversely to TLT)
  • Gold (futures and ETF – GLD) very active – not suitable for all traders
  • Silver (futures and ETF – SLV) – very active – not suitable for all traders
  • EURO FX (futures, mini and micro contracts available) very active suitable for all account sizes

Logical Market Update: Morgan Stanley’s Selling What? NYSE Margin Debt & S&P 500 All Time Highs

Trader riding Elliott Wave

Second Verse Same As the First: Morgan Stanley Pushing Non-Prime Fund to European Investors – NYSE Margin Debt and S&P 500 All Time Highs

To say that people learn from their mistakes is a fabrication.  Seems that several of the TBTF banks have decided to repackage their sub-prime mortgages and ship them off to Europe to offer yield hungry investors a chance to buy in.  Morgan’s latest fund was launched in December 2012 and by the end of June 2013 had $286.5 million invested.  The fund manager aims to pump up the volume to a total of $1 billion building on the investment case that buying non-agency RMBS (sub-prime) because the fundamentals in the U.S. housing market are strong enough to overcome any bad feelings Eurozone investors have from being burned that last time this bubble burst in 2007.  The rational being pumped out by MS is incredible and strongly confirms my suspicions that the housing market has again reached a top.  It may take some time before the majority catches on but if history has anything to say, it will be far too late and many will again get burned.  I wonder how many puts MS and other TBTF banks are buying as they bet on another bubble bursting. 

 

Balance the above against the fact that Eurozone securitizations placed publicly during the first half of 2013 sank nearly 30% over the same period in 2012.  No wonder MS believes they have a high chance of peddling the good faith and credit of the U.S. to Eurozone investors who don’t believe in the good faith and credit of the Eurozone!  What a tangled web they weave.  Remember, there is so much more risks to be off loaded if the TBTF banks are to continue making huge quarterly trading profits. 

 

Add in to this the huge problem of underfunded public employee pension and benefit plans that will begin to bring down many more municipalities.  Detroit’s bankruptcy filing is by no means the lone standout amongst the many across the country that are attempting to deal with underfunded plans.  Several states have made huge promises over the years and now that it is time to pay the piper are screaming foul.  This is a fact and will ultimately lead to the collapse of many more U.S. cities, counties, and states.  Bankruptcy lawyers stand to make a fortune. 

 

A simple fact is that a small uptick in interest rates by the FED would likely be enough to turn the tide.  Consider how much money has been poured into instruments that are designed to increase in yield as interest rates fell.  Seems like the smart thing to do right – borrow funds at 3% and generate a 6% return.  Leveraging to the max was not only prudent but continues to be the trade.  Problem is the folks making the trade are not trading their own money.  They are trading public money and doing it at record low rates. 

 

Should the Federal Reserve raise short-term interest rates by 0.25% liquidity would disappear which would increase margin requirements (yes, all that money put into the investments is borrowed) and more than likely force several liquidations at huge losses.  Important points to remember the investments were not bad, what will destroy investors, are the leverage levels.  Which brings me to my next point.

 

Anybody checked the NYSE margin numbers lately?  I know most people don’t talk about it, but the reality is that most of the buying taking place at record high levels is done on margin.  In fact NYSE margin debt is again at all time highs.  So as the markets rally to new highs investors are more leveraged than at any other time in history.  Greater than in 2000 and 2007 – let’s take a look at what happened then.

 

In March 2000, margin debt on the NYSE reached above $278 million setting a new record at that time, then it began to fall.  A few months later the S&P 500 reached above 1500 and promptly proceeded to loose 45% of its value over the next two years. 

 

In July 2007, NYSE margin debt set a new all time high above $381 million, before turning lower.  Within two months the S&P 500 reached a new all time high at 1550 before dropping over 60% of it’s value over the next eighteen months. 

 

In April 2013 NYSE margin debt again set a new all time high above $384 million and has turned lower.  During the next three months the S&P 500 has moved to new all time highs several times reaching above 1700 on Wednesday. 

 

If history has any to say about what is coming next – look out below. 

 

I am continuing to include the graph of the Federal Reserve’s outright holdings. This chart needs no additional explanation and is included to keep in perspective who has the motivation to keep it all going.

FedHOldings

 

 

The broader indexes again moved to new all time highs for the DJIA and S&P 500 with the Russell almost there and the NDX adding to its string over new recovery highs.  Bonds resumed the declines with yields advancing – the Euro resumed its decline as the Dollar rallied.  The basis for the rallies was pinned on the better than expected drop in initial unemployment claims to five and a half year lows.  Does anybody else see the irony in this?  The FED has made clear that one of the criteria for to cut back on purchases would be a drop in the unemployment rate.  Ok – sounds clear to me – and the bond market took that to heart on Thursday dropping over a point signaling a strong belief in interest rates going up.  The dollar responded by rallying which falls in line with expectations.  Now, the equity markets seem to be in a world all their own and are holding on to what the FED comments stated yesterday – that the FED will continue to hold rates at current levels into 2014.  Now that is putting all your eggs into one basket labeled the good faith and credit of the U.S. Federal Reserve.  I’m not sure what to say about that.  Let’s see what happens tomorrow after the release of the July jobs numbers.

 

Technically, the broader markets remain extremely overbought and now that additional resistance levels have been reached the probability for a period of correction and consolidation has gone up substantially. 

 

The 30 – year bond dropped close to two points with the 10 – year note dropping over a point.  Support at 132’10 in the 30-year bond held with a breach occurring late in the session.  The 10-year note is likely to follow suit with a drop to support at 123’30 to 123’11. 

 

The Precious Metals held to tight ranges today wrapped around unchanged.  The equivalent ETF’s though (GLD and SLV) dropped harder.  Nothing has changed here gold would need to break below 1300 and silver below 19 before the probability for another test of downside support would be in the near term picture.  Thus far, the market continues to signal that the lows are in. 

 

The Euro touched the 1.32 support level before bouncing slightly higher into the U.S. close.  The failure of yesterday’s rally gives strong support to the decline dropping to support at 128. 

 

 

Indicator Warehouse

 

Indicator Warehouse has in my opinion the best platforms available covering a wide range of traders from novice to expert.

 

The Diversified Trading System from Indicator Warehouse offers cost effective products that allow a trader to enter into the “chaos” and trade more effectively.  

 

Trade Manager from Indicator Warehouse automatically calculates the correct amount of contracts or shares based on your account size or market volatility.  Automated stop-loss management and position sizing eliminates most of the problems most individual traders have.  Day trading and position trading both require (actually demand) good risk management.  Trade Manager does the job across the board and is an essential trading tool that ensures that you take the maximum profit from all your trades. 

 

A newer member of the money management tools available from Indicator Warehouse is the Profit Finder – System Back Tester When implemented it allows the user to:

  • Immediately know the impact of parameter changes. 
  • Automatically reads all of your DTS entries and exits
  • Calculates the profit/loss of each trade
  • Performs a wide number of essential intelligence boosting calculations instantly
  • Provides solid details about the effectiveness of your trading strategy/ methodology/ indicators

 

The last two points above are valuable tools to use.  It will show you where some “tweaking” is needed to improve results through the back testing feature. 

 

My point on money rotation and sector rotation is similar to that on parabolic moves that they happen with frequency within many time frames.  As traders these types of moves can be a bonus for day trading or position trading so again don’t get caught up in the “what’s the catch.”    Realizing a rotation is occurring within a stock you trade or a sector is a great source of stocks to plug into the Diversified Trading System.  Allowing DTS to cleanly and beautifully capture the moves though any or all three DTS trading platforms.  Our goal remains to assist traders to make greater profits during all types of markets.  Sector and money rotation is another tool.

 

The Diversified Trading System used together with Trade Manager should continue to produce numerous trading signals in the DJIA, YM (mini), S&P 500, ES (mini), RUT, TF (Russell 2000 mini), AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, NFLX, and LNKD, GS, and Tesla Motors (TSLA).    In the near future I will be adding options strategies to the trading list. 

 

Here is an updated (7/31/2013) list of the markets where I have found that DTS (all three birds) are producing numerous signals.  Continue to bear in mind that there are days when trading opportunities are not as plentiful.  These are days when not trading is likely more profitable than attempting to “force” a trade”:

 

  • DJIA future (e-mini available) – highly recommended for experienced traders
  • S&P-500 future (e-mini available) – highly recommended large intraday moves.
  • Russell 2000 future (e-mini available) – highly recommended can lead in either direction.
  • NASDAQ 100 future (e-mini available) very highly recommended and dominated by AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, and TSLA
  • US$/Euro futures (e-mini available) – very highly recommended – easy to trade afterhours as well.
  • V (Visa) – stock and options – recommended – large swings in both direction likely
  • MA (MasterCard) stock and options – recommended – $600 stock – large swings likely
  • GS (Goldman Sachs) – good two way volume –
  • AAPL (Apple Computer) – highly recommended – Options trading as well
  • GOOG (Google) – highly recommended
  • LNKD (LinkedIn) – solid intraday range
  • NFLX (Netflix) – solid intraday range
  • TSLA (Tesla Motors) – highly recommended 
  • 30-yr Treasury Bond future – highly recommended
  • 10-yr Treasury Note future – solid two way trade
  • TLT (Treasury Bond Long ETF) – very active
  • TBT (Treasury Bond Short ETF) – very active (moves inversely to TLT)
  • Gold (futures and ETF – GLD) very active – not suitable for all traders
  • Silver (futures and ETF – SLV) – very active – not suitable for all traders
  • EURO FX (futures, mini and micro contracts available) very active suitable for all account sizes